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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-08 22:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 16.0, -107.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-08 22:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082044 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 107.7W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow morning, and that motion is should continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-08 22:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082044 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-08 16:58:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 14:58:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 15:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-08 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 First light satellite images show that the convective organization of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the envelope. The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26 C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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