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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Update Statement
2014-08-24 12:19:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT64 KNHC 241019 TCUAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-24 11:11:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 08:51:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 09:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-24 10:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240849 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014 The satellite presentation of the tropical depression has gradually improved overnight. Convection has increased to the northeast of the center and a little more banding is noted. Although the pressure has dropped a few millibars during the past 6 to 12 hours, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone remains a 30-kt tropical depression. Fixes from the aircraft yield an initial motion of 325/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to slow down and turn north-northwestward today into a break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough that is currently moving off the U.S. east coast. This trough is forecast to dig southeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours before lifting northeastward on Tuesday. The track guidance has shifted significantly eastward this cycle, with the exception of the latest ECMWF, which is very similar to its 1200 UTC run. The eastward shift in most of the models appears to be the result of increased interaction of the cyclone with the aforementioned trough during the next 48 hours. This leads to a more north-northwestward or northward motion during the next day or so. Once the trough lifts out, most of the guidance shows a bend back toward the northwest, before the cyclone turns northward and northeast around a subtropical ridge to its east. The NHC track has been shifted eastward, but it remains along the western side of the guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF and continuity of the previous forecasts. The new track forecast is closest to the HWRF, but is well west of the latest multi-model consensus. Future eastward adjustments may be required if the eastward model trend continues. Given that a large spread remains in the guidance, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. Light to moderate northwesterly shear is expected during the next few days. However, the shear is not expected to be strong enough to prevent strengthening, and the official forecast calls for gradual intensification throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the intensity consensus ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 22.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 24.4N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 34.0N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-08-24 10:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 240849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 1(17) 1(18) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) SAN SALVADOR 34 27 34(61) 7(68) 3(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) SAN SALVADOR 50 2 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 6 4(10) 4(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-08-24 10:48:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240848 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 73.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 73.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.4N 73.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 31.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 34.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 73.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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