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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 4
2014-08-24 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 73.1W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-08-24 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 241449 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 6(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 5(22) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 1(17) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 6(17) 3(20) 1(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 15 21(36) 8(44) 4(48) 2(50) 2(52) X(52) SAN SALVADOR 50 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 7 6(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-08-24 16:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241449 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 73.1W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 73.1W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.2N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.9N 73.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.7N 73.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 74.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.3N 74.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-24 13:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 11:50:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 09:05:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-24 12:19:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 6:20 AM AST Sun Aug 24 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 22.9, -73.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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