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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-25 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250233 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Cristobal is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. The deep convection has a ragged appearance, with little or no banding features evident, and this convection is mainly occurring well to the south of the estimated center location. After adjusting for rain inflation, SFMR winds from aircraft observations a few hours ago, indicated that the intensity is no more than 40 kt. Also, the fixes from the Air Force and NOAA planes, which were flying at altitudes of about 1000 and 8000 feet respectively, indicated a southward tilt of the center with height. This is consistent with some northerly shear over the storm as suggested by water vapor imagery. Given the currently disorganized state of Cristobal, not much intensification seems likely for the next 12 hours or so. Afterwards, the global models are predicting a little more favorable upper-tropospheric environment with increasingly diffluent flow over the tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, and only a little above the model consensus. By 120 hours, the global models depict the cyclone embedded within a baroclinic zone, so extratropical transition should have occurred by that time. The motion has been rather erratic over the past several hours, but my best estimate is about 350/4 kt. Cristobal is currently situated near a col between 2 anticyclones in the mid-level flow, one over the United States, and one over the central subtropical Atlantic. The dynamical models indicate that, within a couple of days, the steering of the tropical cyclone will become dominated by flow on the northwest side of the Atlantic anticyclone and on the southern side of a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, the motion is expected to gradually bend to the right with some acceleration over the next several days. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one after 48 hours, but not as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 24.8N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 25.4N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 26.4N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 27.8N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.8N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 37.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 44.0N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-25 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 24.8, -73.1 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-08-25 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 73.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 73.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.4N 73.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 72.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.8N 72.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 71.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 44.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-25 01:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 23:45:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 21:05:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-25 01:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 24.6, -73.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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