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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 7A
2014-08-25 13:46:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 251145 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 72.8W ABOUT 115 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-25 11:11:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 09:06:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 09:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-08-25 10:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 250856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 2(37) X(37) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-25 10:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 24.5, -72.8 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 7
2014-08-25 10:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 72.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHT FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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