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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2014-08-24 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 242049 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 4(34) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MAYAGUANA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 5

2014-08-24 22:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242048 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.9N 73.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.7N 73.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.6N 72.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.4N 72.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.9N 71.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 39.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics

2014-08-24 19:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 17:54:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 15:05:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 4A

2014-08-24 19:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 72.9W ABOUT 145 MI...240 KM ENE OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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