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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-08-23 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 230840 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-23 10:40:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230840 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.9N 34.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 37.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 40.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.6N 47.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 26.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 29.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 32.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-23 05:14:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 02:33:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 03:07:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-23 04:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230231 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 The convective organization of the tropical cyclone has continued to increase this evening. A couple of well-defined curved bands of convection now wrap more than halfway around the center and some cold cloud tops have recently developed near the center. As a result, subjective Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T2.5 and support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm. Gaston becomes the seventh tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Gaston is forecast to move over warm water and remain in a low wind shear environment during the next couple of days. These favorable conditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gaston is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, which agrees with the majority of the intensity guidance. In about 3 days, the global models suggest that Gaston will be nearing an upper-level low over the central Atlantic that could cause an increase in southwesterly shear over the system. This should halt intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for little change in strength after 72 hours. The tropical storm is being steered west-northwestward to the south of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. After that time, a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should cause Gaston to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.6N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.0N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 38.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 28.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-23 04:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 230231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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