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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-25 04:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250233 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies, recent ASCAT measurements, and numerous dropsondes from the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the initial intensity of Gaston remains at 60 kt. Strong upper-level westerlies blowing around the base of an upper low to the northwest of Gaston are already affecting the symmetry of the cyclone, and the low-level center is on the western edge of the convection. This strong westerly shear is expected to last for about 36 hours, resulting in some weakening. Most of the global models move the upper low toward the southwest, and in about 2 days, Gaston will again be in a favorable environment for intensification. On this basin, the NHC forecast weakens the cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours, and then calls for Gaston to intensify and reach hurricane strength over the warm waters of the central Atlantic. The forecast follows closely the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. Gaston is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 15 kt steered by the flow between the subtropical high and the same low that is causing the shear. As the low moves southwestward and the ridge to the north of the cyclone amplifies, Gaston should turn a little more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is the middle of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the latest multi-model consensus. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.6N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 20.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.3N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.5N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 26.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 30.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 32.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-08-25 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 250232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-25 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON STILL WITH 70-MPH WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 24 the center of GASTON was located near 18.6, -42.1 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 10
2016-08-25 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 ...GASTON STILL WITH 70-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 42.1W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 42.1 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-08-25 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.1N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.3N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 30.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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