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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-08-24 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 40.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 40.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.8N 42.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.7N 49.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 30.1N 57.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.6N 58.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 40.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-24 17:08:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 14:56:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:05:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-24 16:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241457 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016 Corrected for initial intensity Gaston's overall cloud pattern has not changed much in organization since the last advisory. The low-level center is located underneath a small central dense overcast (CDO), with hints of a prototype eye within the convective mass. A solid band, attached to the CDO, wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. A 1234 UTC ASCAT pass supports keeping the initial wind estimate at 60 kt. Gaston could still reach hurricane strength today. However, the shear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level trough along 52W is forecast to greatly increase over Gaston and peak in 36 to 48 hours. Even though the cyclone will gradually be moving over warmer waters at that time, the shear should be enough to arrest its development or perhaps even result in weakening. By 72 hours, Gaston's involvement with the trough should lessen and the shear should decrease. Much lower westerly shear is forecast toward the end of the forecast period, which should give Gaston an opportunity to re-strengthen, and perhaps significantly, as it moves over waters of around 29 deg C. The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced some compared to the previous one through 48 hours, but shows slightly greater intensification by 120 hours. The official forecast is in generally in good agreement with the multi-model consensus. The latest fixes indicate that Gaston's heading has a much greater northerly component, and the long-term initial motion estimate is 305/14. Gaston is expected to move northwestward between a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic and the aforementioned trough to the west during the next 3 days. After 72 hours, Gaston should gradually turn north-northwestward and northward with a considerable decrease in forward speed, when it encounters a more substantial break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge along 60W. The ECMWF shows less ridging and makes Gaston vulnerable to the mid- latitude westerlies earlier, with the model showing recurvature before 120 hours. The bulk of the guidance, however, lies farther west, with these models showing more ridging north of Gaston through day 5. The new track forecast is a little right of the previous one through 72 hours in response to the cyclone's abrupt change in heading since the last advisory and is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS solutions. The track beyond 72 hours was adjusted westward and remains close to a ECMWF/GFS model blend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.1N 39.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 19.6N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 21.9N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 30.5N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 32.2N 56.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-08-24 16:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 241456 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-24 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 24 the center of GASTON was located near 16.1, -39.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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