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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-23 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232036 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 The cloud pattern of Gaston has not changed much during the past several hours, although perhaps the convection has become more symmetric. Satellite classifications are about the same as before, so the initial wind speed remains 55 kt. Gaston has about 24-36 hours to intensify before southwesterly vertical wind shear associated with a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to increase. This shear should result in some weakening of the cyclone in the 2 or 3 day time frame. Thereafter, Gaston moves away from the trough, and since the cyclone should be over warm waters near 29C, some restrengthing is likely. Considering the complexity of the scenario, the guidance is in relatively good agreement on this pattern. The official forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/16. Gaston should gradually turn northwestward during the next couple of days as it moves around the subtropical ridge. Guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast during that time, and little change is made to the previous NHC track in the shorter term. Beyond 3 days, a break in the subtropical ridge is forecast, although the models are not in great agreement on exactly what longitude Gaston reaches before its likely recurvature. Overall, the model guidance has shifted a bit westward, and the latest NHC track forecast is shifted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.2N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.2N 38.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.8N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 18.7N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 20.8N 45.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 25.5N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 28.5N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 31.0N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-23 22:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 23 the center of GASTON was located near 14.2, -35.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 5
2016-08-23 22:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 ...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 35.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 35.8 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Gaston should become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-08-23 22:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 232035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-08-23 22:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 232035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 38.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 40.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 43.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.8N 45.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 28.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 31.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 35.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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