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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-23 17:15:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 14:35:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 15:08:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-23 16:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Gaston continues to intensify. The cyclone's cloud pattern has been gradually transitioning from a curved-band pattern to a central dense overcast (CDO). Within the formative CDO, a ragged eye-type feature has occasionally been evident during the last few hours. A satellite classification of T3.5 is used to increase in the initial intensity estimate to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values. Only light vertical wind shear is forecast to affect Gaston during the next 24 to 36 hours while the cyclone moves over marginally warm waters and through a generally moist environment. These factors suggest that further intensification is likely during this period of time. By 48 hours, Gaston should encounter increasing southwesterly to westerly flow at upper-levels associated with a potent trough over the east-central Atlantic. In the very least, the forecast shear and a drier atmosphere associated with this feature should result in an arrested development phase, if not weakening. Late in the forecast period, global models indicate a reduction of the shear while Gaston is over warmer waters of 29 deg C, which could allow for some re-strengthening. Through 36 hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the multi-model consensus and closest to the FSU Superensemble output and the LGEM. After that time, the forecast trends toward the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 285/18. Gaston is being steered quickly toward the west-northwest around the western extension of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from North Africa. The ridge's orientation begins to change as Gaston approaches a significant break in the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic, which results in a northwestward heading and a reduction in forward speed during the next few days. A northward turn with an even greater decrease in forward speed is expected by 120 hours once Gaston enters the weakness over the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is largely similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 34.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.1N 39.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.8N 42.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.8N 44.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 24.2N 48.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.7N 52.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 30.7N 53.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-23 16:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON STILL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 23 the center of GASTON was located near 13.8, -34.6 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 4
2016-08-23 16:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 ...GASTON STILL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 34.6W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 34.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Gaston should become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-08-23 16:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 231435 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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