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Subtropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-08 04:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 542 WTNT44 KNHC 080231 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a subtropical cyclone. Most of the convection is in a ragged band well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB. The global models are in good agreement that the system will open up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure system within 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt. Debby is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 40.3N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 41.2N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 43.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-08-08 04:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 541 FONT14 KNHC 080231 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Subtropical Storm Debby (AT4/AL042018)
2018-08-08 04:30:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEBBY CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 40.3, -49.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 3
2018-08-08 04:30:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 706 WTNT34 KNHC 080230 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 ...DEBBY CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 49.1W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 49.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next day or so, and Debby is forecast to dissipate by Thursday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-08-08 04:30:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 708 WTNT24 KNHC 080230 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 49.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 49.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.2N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 43.9N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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