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Subtropical Storm Debby Graphics
2018-08-07 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 20:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 21:26:57 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-07 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 716 WTNT44 KNHC 072032 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone. Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so. Debby is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355 degrees at 13 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24 hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough, which will eventually absorb Debby. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 39.7N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 41.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 42.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 44.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Subtropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-07 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 664 FONT14 KNHC 072032 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Subtropical Storm Debby (AT4/AL042018)
2018-08-07 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 39.7, -49.2 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-07 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 318 WTNT34 KNHC 072031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 49.2W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), but some decrease in forward speed is anticipated before the cyclone turns toward the northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Debby is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days or earlier. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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