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Subtropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-07 16:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 359 WTNT24 KNHC 071454 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 48.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 48.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 41.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 42.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Subtropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-07 16:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 406 FONT14 KNHC 071454 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Subtropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-15 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jul 2018 20:36:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jul 2018 20:36:09 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-07-15 22:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 763 WTNT42 KNHC 152034 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Beryl is less organized than 24 h ago, with the cyclone currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and occasional puffs of convection in the southeastern quadrant. The low-level center has also become completely detached from a large-scale cloud band farther to the east. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly on earlier scatterometer data, and this data was also used to revise the initial wind radii. Beryl has been moving slowly eastward most of the day. However, the last few satellite images suggest a more northward motion is beginning, so the initial motion is an uncertain 075/5. A broad deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving eastward across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward with some acceleration tonight, with a faster northeastward motion expected on Monday and Monday night. The track guidance has shifted to the east on this advisory, so the new forecast track has been adjusted in that direction. However, the new track lies to the west of the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The new forecast track again keeps the center over the Gulf Stream for 12 h, and the intensity forecast maintains the initial intensity during that time. After that, a quick decay over cold water should occur, and the new intensity forecast now calls for Beryl to dissipate completely between 36-48 h in agreement with the dynamical guidance. The low-level center is still under strong northwesterly vertical shear, and microwave data suggests that dry air has wrapped around the circulation. If these factors prevent the quick re-development of convection, the system could dissipate even earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 38.2N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 39.2N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 41.3N 59.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 44.0N 56.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-07-15 22:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 718 FONT12 KNHC 152034 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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