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Summary for Tropical Storm TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)

2014-10-18 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS TRUDY QUICKLY INTENSIFIES... ...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 the center of TRUDY was located near 16.2, -98.8 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm TRUDY Public Advisory Number 3

2014-10-18 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS TRUDY QUICKLY INTENSIFIES... ...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 98.8W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TRUDY MAKES LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm TRUDY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2014-10-18 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180841 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 6 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 36 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) P MALDONADO 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Advisory Number 3

2014-10-18 10:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180841 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 98.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 98.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 98.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 98.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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