je.st

Home › trudy

Tag: trudy

Tropical Storm TRUDY Graphics

2014-10-18 13:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 11:46:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 09:06:46 GMT

Tags: graphics storm tropical trudy

Summary for Tropical Storm TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)

2014-10-18 13:43:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 the center of TRUDY was located near 16.6, -98.8 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical trudy

Tropical Storm TRUDY Public Advisory Number 3A

2014-10-18 13:43:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181143 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 ...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COMPLETEL A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW. RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number public storm advisory

Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-10-18 11:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180908 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing, and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor continued intensification. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the cyclone's proximity to land, which would end the current intensification phase. Given the current trend, the NHC intensity forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated. Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward, with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours. Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna de Chacahua. It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.2N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.4N 98.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 16.6N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: number discussion storm tropical