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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-18 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181451 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around 1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern portion of the circulation. Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little motion. Since Trudy is already inland over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner. Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little, torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.2N 98.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 17.5N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)
2014-10-18 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 the center of TRUDY was located near 17.2, -98.8 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Public Advisory Number 4
2014-10-18 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 ...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 98.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY OR SOONER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-10-18 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181450 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-10-18 16:50:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181450 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 98.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 98.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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