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Tropical Storm TRUDY Public Advisory Number 2

2014-10-18 04:52:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180252 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 99.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW LIKELY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Advisory Number 2

2014-10-18 04:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180251 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.0W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.0W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 99.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N 99.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-10-18 04:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180251 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better organized with very deep convection near the center and significant bands in the southern semicircle. Microwave satellite data and radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence of some inner-core features forming. Dvorak intensity estimates are increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB. Although the environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone doesn't have much time before it makes landfall. Thus, the official forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt, which lies on the higher side of the consensus. Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt. Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward until landfall within 24 hours. Guidance has trended a little slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend. Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours. The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.5N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 17.0N 99.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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