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Remnants of TRUDY Graphics
2014-10-19 05:15:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 02:38:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 03:06:31 GMT
Remnants of TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-10-19 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190237 TCDEP5 REMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated. Thus, this will be the last advisory on this system. Even though the cyclone has dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly northeastward over the next couple of days. This pattern should continue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.4N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY 12H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Remnants of TRUDY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-10-19 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190236 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Remnants of TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)
2014-10-19 04:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 18 the center of TRUDY was located near 17.4, -98.2 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Remnants of TRUDY Public Advisory Number 6
2014-10-19 04:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190236 TCPEP5 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 ...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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