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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-27 16:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271447 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting that an eye is attempting to form. The northern portion of the core appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the intensity consensus after 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-27 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 18.2, -105.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 10
2021-06-27 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271444 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 105.9W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin later today. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Enrique is then expected to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-06-27 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 271444 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 10 40(50) 14(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ISLAS MARIAS 50 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 14 12(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 105W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 42 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 34 32 5(37) 2(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-06-27 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 053 WTPZ25 KNHC 271443 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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