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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-28 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-06-28 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 281448 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 8(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 10(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 76 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLAS MARIAS 50 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Enrique was located near 20.4, -106.7 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 14
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281447 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 106.7W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the the southern Baja California Peninsula from Cabo San Lucas northward to Los Barriles. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected this afternoon with that motion expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, will begin to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico this afternoon. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecasted over the next several days. Enrique is expected to weaken below hurricane intensity by tomorrow, but is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area this morning and tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today along the southwestern coast of Mexico and for the southeastern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-28 13:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE WARNING AREAS THROUGH TODAY... As of 6:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Enrique was located near 20.2, -106.6 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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