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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Graphics
2016-09-20 11:13:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 08:42:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 09:07:08 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-20 10:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 200841 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-20 10:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200841 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression is only slightly better organized than yesterday, with some broken convective banding over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Overall, however, the system is elongated from southwest to northeast. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain in a low shear environment for the next 48 hours or so, and therefore some strengthening is forecast during that time frame. Later in the period, the dynamical environment is likely to become hostile for strengthening since shear associated with an upper-level trough is forecast to increase to around 30 kt in 3-4 days. Given this expected change in the large-scale environment, weakening should begin in 2-3 days and the system is predicted to revert to tropical depression status by the end of the forecast period. Although the dynamical guidance shows some relaxation of the shear at the end of the period, the current thinking is that by that time the system will be too disrupted to be able to recover. The official intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance through 72 hours and a little below it at days 4 and 5. There is considerable spread in center fixes and the initial motion is an uncertain 295/8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W is likely to induce a more northwestward track during the next day or so, followed by a return to a west- northwestward motion as the ridge rebuilds a bit to the north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the system is forecast to turn back toward the northwest due to another weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is somewhat slower and to the right of the previous one but close to the new dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 14.4N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.4N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.6N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 18.4N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.4N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 26.5N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-20 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of THIRTEEN was located near 14.4, -29.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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thirteen
Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Public Advisory Number 3
2016-09-20 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 29.6W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 29.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h, and a northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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