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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-09-18 16:55:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 181455 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 11(11) 8(19) 5(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 10(10) 8(18) 5(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 13(13) 8(21) 3(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-18 16:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 the center of JULIA was located near 31.8, -77.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 19
2016-09-18 16:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 ...JULIA NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 77.1W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of Julia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 77.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected to occur later today and that motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-09-18 16:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181455 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.5N 77.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.4N 77.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.8N 77.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N 77.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.5N 77.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 77.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-09-18 10:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180850 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Surprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback. Thunderstorm activity has fired near and southeast of the center, with the cyclone looking considerably better organized than any time in the last day or so. The initial wind speed is kept at 25 kt in line with the TAFB satellite classification. The future of Julia looks less clear than it did yesterday. While there is currently strong shear affecting the cyclone, this shear is forecast to relax in about 24 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough moves over the southeastern United States. Considering the current appearance of Julia and the more favorable environment ahead of it, Julia is no longer forecast to become a remnant low. Instead, a more likely scenario is that Julia holds its own or strengthens some while it moves slowly northward near the Gulf Stream. It is best to be conservative with the intensity forecast at this stage, since this overnight convective trend could be misleading. Nonetheless, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, on the low side of the guidance near the LGEM model. Julia has started moving north-northwestward overnight at about 4 kt. A slow motion toward the north is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone moves between a weak west Atlantic subtropical ridge and the southeastern United States trough. The model guidance has shifted northward near the North Carolina coast, although the GFDL and ECMWF remain offshore. Given the uncertainty and continuity constraints, it would be preferable to wait another model cycle before making a larger northward change, and hence the current forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope. It would not be surprising if further northward changes have to be made later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 31.3N 76.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 31.8N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 32.4N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 33.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 33.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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