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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-09-20 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 29.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 29.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 29.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.4N 30.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 32.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 34.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.4N 35.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 38.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 29.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Graphics
2016-09-20 04:45:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 02:45:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 21:07:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-20 04:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200244 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 The coverage of deep convection associated with the depression has decreased somewhat during the past several hours, but the circulation remains well established with several fragmented curved bands. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial wind speed of 30 kt. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic is expected to persist for the next several days due to a series of shortwave troughs moving through the area. As a result, a continued west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected throughout the forecast period. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track prediction lies on the left side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model. The environmental conditions for strengthening during the next several days are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be light and waters warm during the next couple of days, the atmosphere is not overly moist in the vicinity of the depression. These conditions should allow for slow strengthening during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, however, the system is expected to move in less favorable conditions of stronger shear, even drier air, and more marginal SSTs. These conditions should halt strengthening and induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the intensity model consensus for the first few days, but is lower than the consensus at days 4 and 5 given the expected hostile conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.0N 30.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.2N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 25.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-20 04:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19 the center of THIRTEEN was located near 14.2, -29.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Public Advisory Number 2
2016-09-20 04:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 29.0W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 29.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph, and this general motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
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