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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-09-20 04:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 200244 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-09-20 04:44:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 29.0W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 29.0W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 30.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.1N 32.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.2N 34.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 38.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 29.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Graphics
2016-09-19 22:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 20:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 20:52:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-19 22:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192053 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations indicate that the large low pressure system located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has developed sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on scatterometer wind data of near 30 kt along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The central pressure is based on reports from ship D5ET2 during is traversal through the center of the cyclone over the past 12 hours. The depression is a large tropical cyclone with a wind field that is more than 400 n mi in diameter. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/10 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and microwave satellite data. The depression is located along the southern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that is foreast to steer the cyclone westward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion through 120 hours. The official forecast track lies close to the consensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates the cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the current large size of the cyclone. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt over the cyclone for the next 48 hours, which favors steady intensification. However, the mid-level moisture is only expected to be marginal during that time, with humidity values around 60 percent or less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are expected to temper the development process, and this is reflected by the slower-than-average intensification rate. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity model IVCN. This forecast is lower than the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF models, which brings the cyclone to near hurricane strength by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 13.6N 28.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.6N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 19.5N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-19 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 192052 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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