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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-19 22:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19 the center of THIRTEEN was located near 13.6, -28.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-19 22:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 28.6W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 28.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-19 22:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 28.6W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 28.6W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 28.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 29.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 31.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 33.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.6N 35.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 38.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 28.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression JULIA Graphics
2016-09-18 23:10:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 20:33:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 21:06:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-09-18 22:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 182032 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Julia's low-level circulation has continued to improve despite the lack of organized deep convection near the well-defined center. However, some tight curved banding features consisting of shallow to moderate convection have developed within 100 nmi of the center during the past few hours, a hint that the mid-level moisture is beginning to increase. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on on a TAFB intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt, and a 1535Z ASCAT pass that showed some surface winds near 25 kt just north of the center. Julia is moving northwestward or 330/06 kt. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and gradually turn toward the north-northwest and north later tonight. A northward motion is then expected to persist, ahead of a strong shortwave trough that is forecast to move toward the western Carolinas, until Julia moves near or just onshore the the southeastern coast of North Carolina on Tuesday. After that time, it is uncertain whether or not a weakening Julia will lift out to the northeast and merge with a frontal boundary, or drift southwestward as a remnant low. Regardless of the status of Julia by 72 hours, the models are in good agreement that the system will not be a tropical cyclone at that time or thereafter due to strong vertical wind shear and land interaction. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which is a compromise of the various global and regional model solutions. Julia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and Monday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken significantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more anticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide with the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the time when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C. Buoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface dew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the atmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for regeneration of convection near the center later tonight. By Monday afternoon and evening, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough should induce steady weakening, which is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast remains unchanged is a little below the consensus model IVCN. However, due to the possibility that Julia could be a little stronger than currently expected, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has tentatively been tasked to investigate the cyclone Monday afternoon. The primary threat from Julia will be locally heavy rainfall from eastern North Carolina northward to the Mid-Atlantic states and the northeastern U.S. when moisture from the cyclone, or its remnants, will interact with an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 32.3N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 33.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 34.0N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z 34.9N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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