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Tropical Depression KARL Public Advisory Number 32
2016-09-22 10:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220841 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ... KARL STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 60.7W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 60.7 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north is expected Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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karl
Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Advisory Number 32
2016-09-22 10:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 60.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 60.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.3N 62.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 47.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 60.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression KARL Graphics
2016-09-22 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 02:41:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 02:39:31 GMT
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karl
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-09-22 04:40:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220240 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016 While the convection associated with Karl has become more concentrated to the northwest of the center during the past several hours, dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet indicates that the cyclone's circulation is at least somewhat disorganized. A closed circulation exists from the surface to 700 mb. Above that, there is a poorly defined trough at 500 and 400 mb with southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt above the low level center. Finally, the flow at 300 and 200 mb is from the east and southeast. The maximum surface winds in the dropsonde data were 25 kt, and recent ASCAT data implies maximum winds near 30 kt. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is 315/13 as Karl continues to move between the southwestern periphery of subtropical ridge and a upper- to mid-level low located north of Puerto Rico. This northwestward track should continue for another 24 hours or so. Beyond that time, Karl should turn northward, move through a break in the ridge, and then accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in the westerlies. Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to the east during the first 72 hours, and the new forecast track for that period lies between the model consensus and the previous forecast. After recurvature, there remain some differences in the guidance regarding the forward speed of Karl, and the forecast track is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and HWRF models. While the vertical shear is forecast to gradually decrease over Karl, mid-level moisture values to the southwest of the cyclone remain marginal according to the NOAA jet data. In addition, the disorganized circulation argues against any rapid strengthening. The intensity forecast calls for slow intensification for the next 36 hours, followed by faster strengthening until the 72 hour point when the cyclone is forecast to be a hurricane. Karl should weaken as it begins extratropical transition between 72-96 hours, with the transition to a storm-force extratropical low being complete by 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 22.9N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 24.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 25.9N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 27.6N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 64.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 33.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 40.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 47.5N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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karl
tropical
Tropical Depression KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2016-09-22 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 220239 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31) X(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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