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Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-06-05 17:01:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051501 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25 to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this afternoon. The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening. Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over the western Atlantic in about 3 days. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion over the north Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression THREE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-06-05 16:58:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 051458 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21) X(21) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 4( 4) 36(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-05 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 the center of THREE was located near 21.9, -88.1 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-06-05 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051457 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression THREE Public Advisory Number 1
2016-06-05 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051457 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida. STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Serive forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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