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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2016-06-07 07:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070538 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 100 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 95.7W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 95.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico later today, but will likely remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10 inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2016-06-07 05:11:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 02:41:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 03:05:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-06-07 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070242 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the depression is not well organized. Although there is still a lot of strong convection, last-light visible images suggested that the low-level circulation was separating from the mid-level center. The initial wind speed will remain 30 kt in accordance with the CI numbers from TAFB/SAB. Increasing southerly shear should cause the depression to weaken tomorrow. All of the guidance show the cyclone losing some strength by late Tuesday, and the official forecasts follows their lead. The depression is moving northeastward at about 8 kt on the east side of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. While a vertically intact system would likely move onshore, more guidance tonight is suggesting that the low-level center will stay south of Mexico. This solution makes sense since the low and mid-level centers already appear to be separating. The official forecast is thus shifted southward, between the ECMWF and GFDL model, keeping the center over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 15.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.6N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012016)
2016-06-07 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE DEPRESSION OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 the center of ONE-E was located near 14.5, -95.9 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-06-07 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE DEPRESSION OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday but likely remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10 inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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