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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-06-04 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041434 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Bonnie appears to be weakening. The small burst of deep convection that occurred overnight has been shrinking, and the system is now devoid of significant thunderstorm activity. Based on the degraded structure of the system, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt, making Bonnie a tropical depression once again. The depression is over cold water and in a high wind shear environment. Since these environmental conditions are not expected to change, Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low will likely open into a trough within the next couple of days. The small cyclone is moving eastward at about 12 kt in the mid-latitude westerlies. An eastward to east-southeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected until Bonnie dissipates. Little change was made to the previous track prediction, and the official forecast lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.6N 66.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 35.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.6N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 34.1N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-06-04 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 4 the center of BONNIE was located near 35.6, -66.4 with movement E at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 32
2016-06-04 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 66.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 66.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.1N 64.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.6N 60.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.1N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-03 17:06:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2016 14:38:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2016 15:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-06-03 16:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Convection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the center moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east of the Gulf Stream. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. While little change in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours, Bonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due to the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind shear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72 hours. The initial motion is now 080/10. The cyclone should move generally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with some increase in forward speed until dissipation. The new forecast track lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 35.6N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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