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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 25
2016-06-02 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 ...BONNIE COMES BACK A LITTLE MORE... ...RAINS TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 74.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie should move away from the coast of North Carolina tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and Bonnie could become a tropical storm again. Weakening is expected on Friday, and Bonnie is expected to again become a post-tropical low Friday night or Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds may occur over portions of the eastern North Carolina coast this evening, including the Pamlico Sound. RAINFALL: Rainfall should diminish over the Outer Banks of North Carolina this evening. STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast, including the Outer Banks. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-02 20:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Jun 2016 18:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Jun 2016 15:03:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-02 17:07:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Jun 2016 14:56:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Jun 2016 15:03:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-06-02 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021434 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent organized convection near the center. Based on this, the system is again being designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 055/5. Bonnie is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which are tightly clustered. The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during that time. After that, increasing shear and sea surface temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 35.1N 75.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 35.3N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 35.8N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.1N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2016-06-02 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 02 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 021434 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC THU JUN 02 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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