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Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER. THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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jerry
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-10-03 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of JERRY was located near 31.0, -40.2 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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jerry
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression JERRY Public Advisory Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031430 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 ...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 40.2W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JERRY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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advisory
jerry
Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031430 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 40.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 40.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 40.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 40.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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advisory
jerry
tropical
Tropical Depression JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 031430 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 17 19 19 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 49 45 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 33 35 38 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 3 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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