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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-20 01:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of MANUEL was located near 26.0, -106.8 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 22A
2013-09-20 01:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192331 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 ...MANUEL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 106.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE STATES OF DURANGO AND CHIHUAHUA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Graphics
2013-09-19 17:08:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 14:43:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 15:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 37
2013-09-19 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 191441 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS SPUTTERING THIS MORNING AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERION NEEDED FOR MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TOWARD THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. ADDITIONALLY...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF HUMBERTO IN ABOUT A DAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HUMBERTO AS A 30 KT CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION...AS INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATED AT 25 DEGREES AT 5 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS SWEPT UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK ENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.8N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 34.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 36.8N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2013-09-19 16:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 191440 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 60 48 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 39 43 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 2 NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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