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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-13 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130233 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART AFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT... THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER WATER. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-13 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 12 the center of FIFTEEN-E was located near 16.1, -110.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-10-13 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.2W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.2W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression NARDA Graphics
2013-10-10 11:08:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2013 08:32:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2013 09:04:47 GMT
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narda
Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-10-10 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO CLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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