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Tropical Depression NARDA Public Advisory Number 11
2013-10-09 10:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 ...NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 128.3W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-10-09 10:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 090836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 24 28 28 42 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 58 48 45 42 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 16 18 24 26 15 NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT 15KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-10-09 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 128.3W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 128.3W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.9N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 128.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression NARDA Graphics
2013-10-09 05:08:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2013 02:32:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2013 03:04:44 GMT
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narda
Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-09 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 NARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION MOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS SOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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