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Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 18
2013-10-03 10:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 41.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 41.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 41.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression JERRY Graphics
2013-10-03 05:08:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 02:44:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 03:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-10-03 04:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of JERRY was located near 29.7, -42.0 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression JERRY Public Advisory Number 17
2013-10-03 04:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 ...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 42.0W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-10-03 04:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 030240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 8 11 14 15 16 NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 46 41 38 36 35 NA TROPICAL STORM 38 45 45 44 46 45 NA HURRICANE X 1 2 4 4 4 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 4 4 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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