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Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-10-03 04:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030239 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 42.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 42.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112013)
2013-09-30 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of ELEVEN was located near 26.9, -46.7 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 6
2013-09-30 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 46.7W ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM WSW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 1150 MI...1845 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-09-30 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 300838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 5 7 9 12 14 TROP DEPRESSION 31 34 22 25 25 32 34 TROPICAL STORM 67 60 67 59 58 51 47 HURRICANE 1 3 6 9 9 5 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 6 8 8 5 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-09-30 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 46.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 46.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.9N 46.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N 48.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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