je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 35
2013-09-19 04:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190254 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 HUMBERTO IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE-IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME TIME OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR...THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY PREVENT HUMBERTO FROM SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24H...THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 010/8. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HUMBERTO TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72H. THE NHC PREDICTION WILL GO ALONG WITH THE ABSORBED SCENARIO...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF HUMBERTO OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2013-09-19 04:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 190253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 6 4 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 46 31 15 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 45 59 66 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 5 15 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 14 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 35KT 45KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression HUMBERTO (AT4/AL092013)
2013-09-19 04:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of HUMBERTO was located near 32.5, -43.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Public Advisory Number 35
2013-09-19 04:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 ...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 43.4W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Forecast Advisory Number 35
2013-09-19 04:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 43.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 43.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 210SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 43.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [1522] [1523] [1524] [1525] [1526] [1527] [1528] [1529] [1530] [1531] [1532] [1533] [1534] [1535] [1536] [1537] [1538] [1539] [1540] [1541] next »