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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-09-05 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 052035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 24 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 74 58 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 20 18 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-05 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052036 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 GABRIELLE IS BEING GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO KEEP IT FROM BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY BADLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 180 N MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1010 MB BASED ON MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS AT THIS TIME THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TRYING TO RE-FORM THERE. IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...AND MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS. WHETHER THIS WILL VERIFY...AND WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OR FROM ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TO OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.2N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 20.8N 70.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression GABRIELLE (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-05 22:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 5 the center of GABRIELLE was located near 18.2, -68.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Public Advisory Number 5
2013-09-05 22:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 ...GABRIELLE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 68.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-09-05 22:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 052035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 68.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 68.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.2N 69.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.8N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 68.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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