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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-09-05 16:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051441 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013 A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE...SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR...RAWINSONDE... AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS POORLY DEFINED...IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE ABOUT 130 N MI FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER THAT IS LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS STRUCTURE MAY BE DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE SUCH A DRASTIC EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE. NONE OF THE DATA CURRENTLY SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING...SO GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REFORMING IN THAT AREA. IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE REVISED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 24 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/8. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.5N 68.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.3N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 19.6N 69.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-09-05 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 051440 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 22 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 63 57 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 35 20 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression GABRIELLE (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-05 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION... ...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 5 the center of GABRIELLE was located near 17.5, -68.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Public Advisory Number 4
2013-09-05 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 051440 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013 ...GABRIELLE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION... ...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 68.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GABRIELLE HAS BECOME VERY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE DATA. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-09-05 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051440 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 68.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 68.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.3N 68.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.6N 69.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 68.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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