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Summary for Tropical Depression SEVEN (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-05 01:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 4 the center of SEVEN was located near 16.7, -66.2 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Graphics
2013-09-04 23:07:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2013 20:58:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-04 22:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042057 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013 AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTER THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE WIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER IT LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THE NORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression SEVEN (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-04 22:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 4 the center of SEVEN was located near 16.5, -66.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2013-09-04 22:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042057 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 66.2W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY ON THURSDAY...NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE TURKS AND THE CAICOS ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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