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Tropical Depression SEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-09-04 22:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 042057 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 8 11 10 10 9 TROP DEPRESSION 33 26 28 29 22 23 20 TROPICAL STORM 65 66 60 53 57 58 56 HURRICANE 1 4 5 7 11 10 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 4 6 10 8 14 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 1(22) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) PONCE 34 20 10(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAN JUAN 34 6 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
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tropical
Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-09-04 22:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042056 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 66.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 66.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 66.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
International Scientific Forum on Alcohol Research Critique 122: Does Moderate Wine Consumption Lower the Risk of Developing Depression?
2013-09-04 15:36:26| Daily beverage news and comment - from just-drinks.com
There is a large amount of literature linking heavy alcohol consumption to depression: Most studies show that heavy drinkers tend to be depressed, and that depressed people may self-medicate with large amounts of alcohol.
Tags: forum
international
research
lower
Tropical Depression KIKO Graphics
2013-09-02 17:08:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2013 14:36:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2013 15:04:43 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
kiko
Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-02 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 KIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
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