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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2013-08-04 11:12:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2013 08:50:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2013 09:05:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-04 10:50:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040849 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS KEEPING WHAT LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND A 0542 UTC AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-TERM TRACK SCENARIO...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHEREAS THE GFS AND HWRF ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER AND DEEPER STORM THAT MOVES POLEWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS AFTER 18-24 HOURS THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES UNDER A RIDGE AXIS THAT LIES ALONG 130W LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE 28C AND WARMER AND THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE MOIST WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 96 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STILL FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST EQUATORIAL INFLOW PATTERN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 12.8N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 12.8N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 12.9N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.9N 134.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 16.1N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 17.3N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-08-04 10:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 3 2 1 4 13 TROP DEPRESSION 32 23 17 13 8 24 45 TROPICAL STORM 66 70 66 62 58 63 41 HURRICANE 1 5 14 23 33 9 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 12 19 28 8 2 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 4 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 50KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082013)
2013-08-04 10:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 12.8, -125.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 4
2013-08-04 10:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040849 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 125.6W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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