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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-25 04:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER SUGGESTING AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO LATE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX-E (EP1/EP062013)
2013-07-25 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of SIX-E was located near 15.2, -122.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-07-25 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 250240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 ...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 122.0W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-07-25 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 250240 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 2 4 8 15 24 TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 12 19 32 40 49 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 66 62 54 42 26 HURRICANE 1 9 20 15 6 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 17 13 5 2 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-07-25 04:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 250239 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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