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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-08-04 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 125.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 125.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.8N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 12.9N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.6N 131.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.1N 138.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N 142.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 125.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2013-08-04 05:11:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2013 02:40:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2013 03:05:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-04 04:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LIGHT-TO-MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM GIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT ABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082013)
2013-08-04 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 12.7, -124.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 3
2013-08-04 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040238 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 124.9W ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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