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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-08-03 16:56:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031456 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 8 10 18 28 28 TROP DEPRESSION 61 35 33 34 41 46 49 TROPICAL STORM 36 57 54 50 38 25 23 HURRICANE X 3 5 7 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 3 5 6 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-03 16:56:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031456 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082013)
2013-08-03 16:56:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 13.0, -123.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-08-03 16:56:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031456 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 123.0W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-08-03 16:56:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031456 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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