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Tropical Depression DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 031431 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-08-03 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of DORIAN was located near 30.6, -78.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Public Advisory Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 031431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 031431 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 13 16 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 57 50 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 28 32 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 031430 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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