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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-08-04 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040238 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 124.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 124.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-08-04 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040238 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 3 2 2 4 7 TROP DEPRESSION 32 23 17 13 11 23 38 TROPICAL STORM 66 70 66 62 63 64 52 HURRICANE 1 5 14 23 23 10 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 12 19 20 9 3 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 3 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 50KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2013-08-03 23:16:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 20:33:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 21:07:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-03 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN. THE GFS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MOVING WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 12.7N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 12.5N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 12.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082013)
2013-08-03 22:31:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 12.9, -123.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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