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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-12 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122046 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 The disturbance that has been tracked westward for the past several days across the open waters of the the tropical eastern Pacific has finally established a sufficiently well-defined low-level circulation to be designated as Tropical Depression Three-E. Convection increased last night and began to consolidate, while satellite images and microwave data this morning indicated that there was evidence of a well-defined low developing. This was later confirmed by a pair of ASCAT overpasses. These overpasses showed a compact radius of maximum winds. And, although the ASCAT-A data had a few vectors between 30-35 kt, these were not homogeneous and appeared unrepresentative of the system's intensity. In addition, the rather ragged satellite appearance and the Dvorak intensity estimate of 2.0 from SAB are suggestive that this system should be initialized as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is moderately conducive for gradual strengthening, with SSTs of 27-28 degrees C, mid-level RH values between 50-60 percent, and vertical wind shear of about 5-10 kt. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 2-3 days. By 72 h, dry air and subsidence are expected to hinder any further intensification and should begin a weakening trend. By late in the forecast period, the system is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm, which should hasten the pace of weakening. The official intensity closely follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA, which shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight, and levels off its intensity by 48 h, followed by a weakening trend after 60 h. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is steering it at a somewhat uncertain 275/08 kt. This ridge is forecast by nearly all of the models to weaken over the next couple of days, leaving the depression in a region of very weak steering currents through early next week. A mid-upper level trough digging southward to the northwest of the cyclone should induce a northerly component of motion along with an increase in forward speed by midweek. As said, there is good agreement on the pattern, however, the models vary greatly on how abruptly they slow the system. This is resulting in a track model spread of about 300 n mi by 72 h. The NHC track forecast tries to split the difference by closely following the TVCE and TVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.8N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-12 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 the center of Three-E was located near 11.8, -123.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-06-12 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 123.6W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 123.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected over the next few days along with a turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The system is expected to begin weakening by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-12 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 8(29) 2(31) 1(32) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-12 22:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122044 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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