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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-15 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 02:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 03:28:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-15 04:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 505 WTPZ43 KNHC 150237 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from TAFB. The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track, Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-06-15 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-15 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS BARELY HOLDS ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 the center of Carlos was located near 10.5, -130.8 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 10
2021-06-15 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...CARLOS BARELY HOLDS ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 130.8W ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 130.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a westward turn through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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